Typical surveys in the scenario context include:

1. Direct estimate collection

Surveys can collect expert estimates on either the outcome of a dynamic system or the parameters of it. Take land use change as an example, a survey may directly require respondents' estimate of "what is the percentage of forest in 30 years if ...", or try to elicit the mental model by asking "how will driver/factor X contribute to deforestation" and aggregate the assumed effects. Either way, it requires accurate understanding and sufficient expertise about the study area and questions for both survey developer and respondents. 

To improve the credibility of survey responses, previous studies have emphasized the importance of proper phrase of questions and calibration of respondents answers. Some studies also require the respondents to report a range of their estimates with confidence levels. You may consider these components when design your own survey.


Review: Jacobs, Sander, et al. "‘The Matrix Reloaded’: A review of expert knowledge use for mapping ecosystem services." Ecological Modelling 295 (2015): 21-30.
Application: Horton, B. P., Rahmstorf, S., Engelhart, S. E., & Kemp, A. C. (2014). Expert assessment of sea-level rise by AD 2100 and AD 2300. Quaternary Science Reviews, 84, 1-6. 
How to combine expert forecasts: Genre, V., Kenny, G., Meyler, A., & Timmermann, A. (2013). Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?. International Journal of Forecasting. 29(1), 108-121.


2. Stakeholder vision survey

Rather than asking for predictions of future change, vision surveys collect respondents' personal opinions, views, goals and plans. Those inputs can then be combined to develop a preferred scenario. When study scale and budget allows, the survey can be expanded to include landowners' possible decisions affecting future land use. This can help generate a credible scenario for privately owned or administrated resources.

Stakeholder Survey Example: USFS. Questionnaire of The National Woodland Owner Survey (FIA) 


3. Consensus Building - The Delphi Method

The Delphi Method is an iterative process that uses surveys for consensus building. The process consists of several rounds of surveys. The responses of each round are summarized and used to prepare the questionnaire for the next iteration. Through the process, respondents are able to adjust or explain their statements based on the summary and comments from the previous round. The process reduces group pressure in workshop settings. 

Guide: Hasson, F., Keeney, S., & McKenna, H. (2000). Research guidelines for the Delphi survey technique. Journal of advanced nursing, 32(4), 1008-1015.
Application: Schuckmann, S. W., Gnatzy, T., Darkow, I. L., & Heiko, A. (2012). Analysis of factors influencing the development of transport infrastructure until the year 2030—A Delphi based scenario study. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 79(8), 1373-1387.